Reflecting on the PE Industry During the Past Year (& My 2024 Outlook)

Just wanted to reflect on this year – here’s a concise overview of the private equity (PE) landscape and strategic insights for navigating it:

The resilience of the PE industry, even amid a slowdown, underscores the critical role of value creation and revenue growth for investment success. To stimulate deal activity, a reduction in the cost of capital / interest rates is essential.

For deal activity to return, there must be a reduction in the cost of capital. Despite the enormous pool of alternative private capital dry powder, amounting to ~ $2.5 trillion, it pales in comparison to the market cap of leading tech giants (easily $15B+). The trade-off between liquidity and higher returns is favorable, and top PE funds can consistently deliver high returns.

The disparity between fundamentals and market sentiment presents opportunities for savvy PE investors, particularly in the cyclical M&A sector poised for a rebound  in 2024-2025 after recent dips.

Systemic risks have been evident, but it’s important to understand that, for example, SVB or First Republic collapse was due to asset-liability mismatches rather than defaults.  In this case, risks were not systemic affecting all of PE, but more in banking operations requiring regulatory compliance to mitigate risks.

I’m optimistic about the PE industry’s future (next 12 months, and equally also next 10 years). The right PE approach (which we have at Charlesbank), is prioritizing trust and high standards, will aim to leverage attractive strategies for for significant revenue growth.